Testing the load capacity curve hypothesis accounting for energy consumption and water use pressure in climate-vulnerable Somalia
his study investigates how economic growth, energy consumption, urbanization, investment, and water-use pressure are affecting ecological sustainability in Somalia. Using annual data from 1990–2022, the authors provide the first empirical test of the Load Capacity Curve hypothesis for Somalia, applying a Fourier ARDL model alongside unit-root and Granger-causality analysis to account for the country’s long-term structural changes, climate shocks, and post-conflict economic transition.
The findings show that Somalia’s development path remains closely tied to environmental pressure. Economic growth is associated with declining ecological sustainability at lower income levels, although this negative effect weakens as income rises. Energy consumption, urbanization, and pressure on freshwater resources are all negatively associated with the country’s load capacity factor in the long run. Water stress is especially important: the study identifies a two-way relationship between ecological sustainability and water-use pressure, highlighting how water scarcity and environmental degradation can reinforce one another.
The research is particularly significant for Somalia because the country has remained in ecological deficit since the mid-1980s, while recurrent drought, deforestation, conflict, rapid urbanization, and dependence on traditional biomass continue to weaken ecosystem resilience. The study notes that forest cover has fallen from about 13% to below 10% of total land area, with an estimated 2.2 million hectares lost, largely due to charcoal production and biomass extraction.
The authors therefore call for a development model that integrates environmental sustainability into Somalia’s economic recovery. Key priorities include expanding solar and wind energy, reducing dependence on diesel and charcoal, strengthening land-use and environmental regulation, improving urban water, sanitation and waste systems, promoting rainwater harvesting and efficient irrigation, restoring watersheds, and directing investment toward renewable energy, climate-resilient agriculture and sustainable water infrastructure.
