Anticipating El Niño in Somalia: Building Climate Resilience

As the likelihood of another El Niño event increases, Somalia stands at a critical moment to shift from responding to disasters toward anticipating them. Anticipating El Niño in Somalia: Building Climate Resilience examines why flooding is becoming more frequent and destructive, drawing lessons from the devastating 2023 Deyr floods and assessing the country’s preparedness for future climate shocks. The paper explores how climate change, upstream hydrological dynamics, environmental degradation, weak infrastructure, and governance challenges combine to amplify flood risks across Somalia. It presents evidence-based recommendations to strengthen early warning systems, climate-resilient infrastructure, ecosystem restoration, disaster risk governance, and transboundary water cooperation. At a time when forecasts indicate a high probability of El Niño returning, this publication argues that anticipatory action, coordinated planning, and sustained investment in resilience are essential to protect lives, livelihoods, and Somalia’s long-term development.