Ecological capacity in water-stressed Somalia underglobalization, institutional change and human capitaldevelopment

A new study published in Scientific Reports examines how globalization, water stress, institutional quality, and human capital shape Somalia’s ecological sustainability. Using annual data from 1990–2020, the study applies the Load Capacity Factor to assess the balance between the country’s ecological resources and environmental demand. The findings show that globalization and water stress have significant negative long-term effects on Somalia’s ecological capacity, while stronger institutions and human-capital development contribute positively to environmental resilience.

The research is particularly significant for Somalia, where recurrent droughts, rapid urbanization, heavy dependence on natural resources, and weak environmental enforcement continue to place pressure on ecosystems. The authors find that a 1% increase in globalization is associated with a 0.34% decline in the Load Capacity Factor, while increased water stress also weakens ecological sustainability. In contrast, improvements in institutional quality and human capital are associated with stronger long-term ecological performance.

The study calls for a shift toward an eco-structural transformation that combines stronger water governance, sustainable trade, institutional modernization, green technology, and investment in education and professional skills. It recommends improved groundwater management, more effective coordination across government institutions, greater environmental data transparency, and expanded training in renewable energy, water management, climate-resilient agriculture, and environmental monitoring. Together, these measures could strengthen Somalia’s capacity to pursue economic development while protecting its ecological foundations.