Roobabka Gu’ga oo noqda Kheyraad loogu Adkeysankaro Abaaraha Soomaaliya

Cimilada Soomaaliya waxaa lagu gartaa isbeddel aad u kala duwan (variability) , halkaas oo abaaraha iyo fatahaaduhu ay mararka qaar isku mar dhacaan oo ay sii xoogaystaan. Xilliga Gu’ga (Abriil–Juun), oo taariikh ahaan ahaa xilliga roobka ugu wax-soo-saarka badan dalka, isla markaana bixiya in ka badan 50% roobka sanadlaha ah, ayaa hadda lala xiriiriyaa fatahaado soo noqnoqda oo waxyeelleeya nolol-maalmeedka dadka, barakiciya bulshada, isla markaana dhaawaca nidaamyada cuntada. Fatahaadaha xilliga Gu’ga ee Soomaaliya, oo badanaa loo arko wax burbur keliya ah, haddana waxay leeyihiin fursad aan weli si fiican looga faa’iideysan oo noqon karta kayd biyo oo muhiim ah, iyadoo dalka uu la tacaalayo abaaro soo noqnoqda oo saameeya ilaa 4.8 milyan oo qof sannadka 2026. Qoraalkan (commentary ) wuxuu soo jeedinayaa in laga guuro habka falcalinta ah (reactive ) ee ka jawaabista fatahaadaha loona gudbo maareyn isku dhafan oo biyaha fatahaadda ah (integrated flood water management), nidaamyada digniinta hore (early warning systems), isku darka kaabeyaasha (infrastructure), xalalka ku saleysan deegaanka (nature-based solutions), iyo nidaamyo xog ku dhisan (data-driven systems). Habkan wuxuu fatahaadaha kama dhigayaa oo keliya khatar la yareeyo, balse sidoo kale fursad lagu xoojin karo amniga biyaha (water security) iyo

adkeysiga isbeddelka cimilada (climate resilience)

Asalka iyo Xaaladda Guud (Background)

Soomaaliya waxay la kulantay isbeddel weyn oo ku yimid xaaladdeeda cimilada iyo biyaha (hydro-meteorological landscape), iyadoo ka gudubtay wareegyo caadi ah oo cimilada ah una gudubtay musiibooyin isdaba-joog ah oo aad u daran. Taariikh ahaan, cadaadiska deegaanka waxaa inta badan sababi jiray abaaraha, halka fatahaaduhu badanaa ku koobnaayeen hareeraha wabiyada Jubba iyo Shabeelle xilliyada Gu’ga iyo Deyrta. Si kastaba ha ahaatee, burburka deegaanka ee muddo dheer socday, oo ay ka mid yihiin jarista dhirta (deforestation) iyo ciid ku ururista marinnada wabiyada (sediment accumulation), ayaa si weyn u kordhiyay halista fatahaadaha (flood susceptibility), taasoo sababtay in wabiyadu fatahaan xitaa marka roobku dhexdhexaad yahay. Isla mar ahaantaana, gobollada waqooyi oo hore uga badbaadi jiray fatahaadaha ayaa hadda la kulmaya daadad degdeg ah (flash floods) oo burbur leh, taasoo ka dhalata roobab xooggan oo ku da’a carro qalalan oo aan biyaha nuugin (impermeable soils).

Tan iyo sannadkii 2010, Soomaaliya waxay gashay marxalad ay isku xigaan xaalado cimilo oo aad u daran (compounded climate extremes), halkaas oo abaaro culus ay si toos ah u raacaan fatahaado ballaaran. Fatahaadihii dabayaaqadii 2023, oo lagu tilmaamay kuwo dhaca hal mar qarni gudaheed(once-in-a-century), ayaa ka dhashay isku-darka El Niño (El Niño–Southern Oscillation) iyo isbeddelka Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), kuwaas oo saameeyay malaayiin qof isla markaana barakiciyay in ka badan hal milyan oo qof, taasoo muujisay heer cusub oo halis ah. Xaaladdan ayaa sii socotay ilaa 2025 iyo 2026, iyadoo fatahaado goobo gaar ah ka dhacaya ay barbar socdaan abaaro baahsan, taasoo muujinaysa isburin halis ah oo ku jirta cimilada(climate paradox).

Sababaha fatahaadaha Soomaaliya hadda ma aha kuwo dabiici oo keliya, balse waxay si weyn ula xiriiraan dhibaatooyin nidaamsan iyo qaab-dhismeed (structural and systemic drivers). Maareyn liidata oo wabiyada ah, dillaacyo iyo burbur ku yimid difaacyada wabiyada (embankments), iyo isticmaalka dhulka oo aan la xakameyn (unregulated land use) ayaa sii xoojiya saameynta fatahaadaha, gaar ahaan bulshooyinka nugul iyo dadka barakacayaasha ah. Marka la gaaro 2026, xaaladda fatahaadaha ee la saadaaliyay waxay ka tarjumaysaa wareeg guud oo xasillooni darro cimilo ah (climate instability), halkaas oo dhibaatooyinka deegaanka ay noqdeen kuwo joogto ah, isku xiran, isla markaana sii adkaanaya in la maareeyo haddii aan la helin xalal waqti dheer ah (long-term structural adaptation).

Saadaasha 2026 ee Roobabka Gu’ga ( Outlook )

Roobabka Gu’ga ee Maarso ilaa May (MAM) waa kuwo aad muhiim ugu ah Soomaaliya, maadaama ay bixiyaan ilaa 60% roobka sanadlaha ah isla markaana taageeraan beeraha iyo xoolaha gobollo badan sida Mudug, Nugaal, Sanaag, Bari, Jubaland, Woqooyi Galbeed, Sool, iyo gobollada dhexe. Saadaasha cimiladu waxay muujinaysaa qiyaastii 40% fursad roob caadi u dhow (near-normal rainfall), iyadoo sidoo kale la filayo heerkul sare (higher temperatures) iyo roobab ka badan caadiga meelaha qaarkood (wetter conditions), taasoo kordhinaysa halista fatahaadaha (flood risk). Inkasta oo roob wanaagsan uu gacan ka geysan karo soo kabashada abaaraha iyadoo la helayo biyo iyo daaq, haddana roob xad-dhaaf ah ama si liidata loo maareeyo wuxuu keeni karaa fatahaado, barakac, iyo khasaare dhaqaale, taasoo muujinaysa baahida loo qabo maareyn dheellitiran oo biyaha ah (balanced water management).

Sababaha Cimilada iyo Biyaha (Hydrological Drivers)

Cimilada Soomaaliya waxaa saameeya isdhexgal jilicsan oo u dhexeeya nidaamyada cimilada caalamka (global weather systems) iyo xaaladaha deegaanka ee gudaha (local environmental conditions), taasoo keenta isbedbeddel aad u daran oo u dhexeeya abaar iyo fatahaad. Roobka dalka wuxuu inta badan ku xiran yahay dhaqdhaqaaqa Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), kaasoo ka qeebqaato xilliga Gu’ga oo ah waqtiga ugu muhiimsan ee beeraha. Sanadihii ugu dambeeyay, wareeggan xilliyeed wuxuu noqday mid aan la isku halleyn karin, iyadoo roobku dib u dhaco kadibna yimaado si xooggan oo muddo gaaban ah. Halkii biyuhu si tartiib ah ugu milmi lahaayeen dhulka, badankood si degdeg ah ayay u qulqulaan (runoff), taasoo keenta fatahaado iyadoo aan la buuxin biyaha dhulka hoostiisa (groundwater recharge), taasoo beeraleyda ka dhigaysa kuwo la kulma biyo yari iyo burbur degdeg ah labadaba.

Marka laga soo tago roobabka gudaha, nidaamyada cimilada ee waaweyn (global weather systems) ayaa door muhiim ah leh. El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) ayaa si weyn u saameeya kala duwanaanshaha roobabka, halka El Niño uu keeno roobab badan, La Niña-na ay keento abaaro dheer. Saameyntan waxaa sii xoojiya Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), kaasoo kordhin kara roobabka marka xaaladuhu is waafaqaan. Isla markaas, wabiyada Jubba iyo Shabeelle waxay keenaan khatar dheeraad ah maadaama ay ku tiirsan yihiin roobabka ka da’a Itoobiya (upstream rainfall). Xitaa haddii roobku gudaha dalka ka yaryahay, fatahaado ayaa ka dhici kara meelaha hoose (downstream flooding). Nuglaantan waxaa sii kordhiya difaacyo daciif ah iyo ciid ku ururta wabiyada (sedimentation), taasoo yaraysa awoodda ay biyaha qaadi karaan (river capacity), isla markaana kordhisa fursadda fatahaad xitaa marka roobku dhexdhexaad yahay.

Inkasta oo ay jiraan sababo cimilo oo xooggan, halista fatahaadaha Soomaaliya waxaa si weyn u qaabeeya dhibaatooyin nidaamsan iyo siyaasadeed (institutional and policy gaps). Isku xirnaan la’aan hay’adaha (weak coordination), fulin la’aanta qorsheynta isticmaalka dhulka (land-use planning), iyo maqnaanshaha maareyn isku dhafan oo heer wabiga ah (integrated river basin management) ayaa ka dhigay nidaamka ka hortagga fatahaadaha mid kala daadsan oo ku kooban jawaab degdeg ah halkii uu ka ahaan lahaa mid ka hortag ah (preventive approach). Dhibaatooyinka kaabeyaasha, gaar ahaan difaacyada wabiyada Jubba iyo Shabeelle oo si liidata loo dayactiray (poorly maintained embankments), ayaa lagu sii daray falalka aadanaha sida jarista dhirta (deforestation) iyo ballaarinta degsiimooyinka (settlement expansion), kuwaas oo dedejiya nabaad-guurka ciidda (soil erosion) isla markaana kordhiya ciidda ku ururta wabiyada (sedimentation in river channels). Tani waxay yaraysaa awoodda wabiyada ee qaadista biyaha waxayna kordhisaa suurtagalnimada fatahaad xitaa marka roobku dhexdhexaad yahay. Intaa waxaa dheer, falal aan la xakameyn sida si ula kac ah loo jebiyo hareeraha wabiyada si waraab loo helo (deliberate breaching for irrigation) ayaa sii wiiqa difaacyada fatahaadaha. Natiijadu waa nidaam ay fashilka maamulka (governance failures) sii xoojiyaan khataraha dabiiciga ah, iyagoo u beddelaya fatahaado la maareyn karo musiibooyin soo noqnoqda.

Isku xig-sashada Fatahaad iyo Abaar (Flood–Drought Paradox)

Bilowga 2026, Soomaaliya waxay la kulmeysaa mid ka mid ah abaaraha ugu daran ee sannadihii u dambeeyay, iyadoo in ka badan 4.4 milyan oo qof ay ku jiraan xaalad adag (IPC Phase 3+), isla markaana guuldarro dalagyo baahsan ay saameysay ilaa 70–85% dhulka beeraha, sida ay sheegeen Hay’adda Cuntada iyo Beeraha (FAO) iyo FSNAU. Ilo-biyo ayaa qalalay, xoolihii waa daciifeen, nolol-maalmeedkii miyiguna wuu burburay. Haddaba, iyadoo roobab culus ay bilaabmeen, dalka si degdeg ah ayuu uga guurayaa xaalad abaar una gudbaya fatahaad, taasoo noqotay qaab soo noqnoqda oo ka mid ah nidaamka cimilada Soomaaliya. Fatahaadahani, inkasta oo ay burbur keenaan, haddana waxay muujinayaan fursad muhiim ah. Halkii biyaha fatahaadda loo ogolaan lahaa inay si aan faa’iido lahayn ugu qulqulaan badaha isla markaana ay waxyeelleeyaan kaabeyaasha, waxaa suuragal ah in la qabto oo la maareeyo si loo taageero amniga biyaha (water security ) ee mustaqbalka. Xitaa haddii qayb yar oo ka mid ah biyaha fatahaadda xilliyeed la kaydiyo, waxay ka caawin kartaa dib u buuxinta biyaha dhulka hoostiisa (aquifer recharge), soo celinta beeraha, iyo yareynta saameynta abaaraha mustaqbalka. Sidaas darteed, fatahaaduhu ma aha oo keliya musiibooyin, balse sidoo kale waa xal suurtagal ah. Haddii si sax ah loo maareeyo, waxay noqon karaan kheyraad istiraatiiji ah oo kor u qaada adkeysiga abaaraha (drought resilience) halkii ay ka ahaan lahaayeen dhibaato soo noqnoqda.

Dib-u-qaabaynta Fatahaadaha Roobka si ay u noqdaan Kheyraad

Fatahaaduhu waxay keenaan biyo badan oo dusha sare ah (surface water), dib-u-buuxin dabiici ah (natural recharge), iyo carro hodan ah oo kordhisa bacrinta ciidda (soil fertility). Meelaha halista sare leh ee wabiyada Shabeelle iyo Jubba, marinno la xakameeyo (controlled spillways) ayaa u leexin kara biyaha xad-dhaafka ah dhulal kaydin ah (basins). Magaalooyinka sida Muqdisho, biyaha daadadka waxaa badanaa loo arkaa qashin (runoff), balse haddii la kaydiyo waxay noqon karaan biyo loo isticmaalo adeegyo aan cabitaan ahayn (non-potable reuse). Xalalka ku saleysan deegaanka (nature-based solutions) ayaa sii xoojin kara arrintan, sida dib-u-soo-celinta dhul-biyoodka (wetlands restoration) oo hoos u dhigta qulqulka biyaha (peak flows), taasoo u beddeleysa wareegga burburka ah ee fatahaad iyo abaar (flood–drought cycle) fursad lagu dhiso adkeysi (resilience).

Dib-u-qaabaynta fatahaadaha Soomaaliya si ay u noqdaan kheyraad waxay u baahan tahay in laga guuro jawaab degdeg ah (emergency response) loona gudbo maareyn isku dhafan oo biyaha ah (integrated water management), halkaas oo biyaha xad-dhaafka ah la qabto, la kaydiyo, laguna celiyo isticmaalka si loo yareeyo abaaraha joogtada ah. Halkii biyaha fatahaadaha burburka leh loo ogolaan lahaa inay si aan faa’iido lahayn u socdaan, nidaamyo sida biyo-xireenno carro ah (earth dams), keyd biyo (reservoirs), iyo habab dhaqameed sida berkado (berkads), oo la isticmaalayay tan iyo 1970-meeyadii isla markaana kaydin kara biyo muddo bilo ah, ayaa suurtagal ka dhigaya in bulshada ay helaan biyo xilliyada qalalan. Kaabeyaasha waaweyn (large-scale infrastructure), oo ay ku jiraan dib-u-dhiska nidaamyada kaydinta ee ku teedsan wabiga Shabeelle, waxay yareyn karaan fatahaadaha isla markaana taageeri karaan waraabka (irrigation).

Xalalka ku saleysan deegaanka (nature-based solutions) sidoo kale waxay door muhiim ah ka ciyaaraan hoos u dhigista xawaaraha biyaha (flow reduction) iyo kordhinta nuugista dhulka (infiltration). Farsamooyinka sida xireenno yaryar (check dams), dib-u-soo-celinta dhirta (vegetation restoration), iyo marinno leexiya fatahaadaha (flood diversion channels) waxay gacan ka geystaan dib-u-buuxinta biyaha dhulka hoostiisa (groundwater recharge) iyo yareynta qulqulka degdegga ah (runoff), iyadoo la tixgelinayo in roobka Soomaaliya badankiisu si degdeg ah u lumiya sababtoo ah uumi-bax sare (high evaporation) iyo burburka dhulka (land degradation). Isla mar ahaantaana, magaalooyinka waxay ka gudbi karaan aragtida ah in fatahaaddu tahay qashin, iyagoo u beddelaya nidaamyo kaydin iyo dib-u-isticmaal (retention and reuse systems). Habkan isku dhafan ee isku xira kaabeyaasha, deegaanka, iyo xogta (data integration) wuxuu yareynayaa nuglaanta, soo celinayaa dhulka burburay, wuxuuna jebinayaa wareegga soo noqnoqda ee fatahaad iyo abaar.

Saameynta Dhaqaale, Bulsho iyo Deegaan ee Xilliga Gu’ga 2026 (Socio-Economic and Environmental Impacts)

Xilliga Gu’ga ee soo socda (Abriil–Juun 2026) ee Soomaaliya wuxuu leeyahay laba dhinac oo isdiidan marka laga eego xasilloonida dhaqaale-bulsho (socio-economic stability) iyo caafimaadka deegaanka (environmental health). Saadaasha ICPAC waxay muujinaysaa roob ka badan caadiga (above-normal rainfall) oo gaaraya 40% gobollada dhexe iyo koonfureed. Fatahaadaha Gu’ga, haddii si fiican loo maareeyo, waxay door muhiim ah ka qaadan karaan dib-u-buuxinta biyaha iyo kheyraadka deegaanka ee Soomaaliya oo abaaro u nugul. Taariikh ahaan, roobabka culus ee xilliyeed ayaa taageeray soo kabashada beeraha, tusaale ahaan, kadib xilligii Gu’ga 2020, qiyaastii 265,000 hektar oo ku teedsanaa wabiyada Jubba iyo Shabeelle ayaa dib loo soo nooleeyay, taasoo hagaajisay daaqa, taageertay nolol-maalmeedka xoolo-dhaqatada, isla markaana kordhisay helitaanka cuntada muddo gaaban (short-term food security).

Bilowga 2026, Soomaaliya wali waxay wajahaysaa abaar aad u daran oo sii xumaanaysa, iyadoo qiyaastii 6.5 milyan oo qof—ku dhowaad saddex-meelood meel dadka—ay la kulmayaan cunto yari ba’an (acute food insecurity) (IPC Phase 3 ama ka sareeya), oo ay ku jiraan in ka badan 2 milyan oo ku jira xaalad degdeg ah (emergency conditions). Isbarbardhiggan wuxuu muujinayaa baahida degdegga ah ee loo qabo in si wanaagsan loo maareeyo loona kaydiyo biyaha fatahaadda si faa’iidadoodu u dhaafto kaliya soo kabashada degdegga ah una taageerto adkeysiga abaaraha mustaqbalka.

Dhanka kale, fatahaadaha Soomaaliya waxay leeyihiin saameyn taban oo weyn, gaar ahaan fatahaadaha wabiyada (riverine flooding) iyo daadadka magaalooyinka (urban flash floods). Wabiyada Jubba iyo Shabeelle, fatahaado aan la xakameyn ayaa si joogto ah u burburiya dalagyada, u barakiciya bulshada, isla markaana waxyeelleeya kaabeyaasha muhiimka ah sida waddooyinka iyo nidaamyada waraabka. Dhacdooyinka waaweyn, boqolaal kun oo qof ayaa barakaca, mararka qaarna in ka badan hal milyan ayaa ka barakaca guryahooda, halka dhul ballaaran oo beereed uu biyo hoos galo, taasoo hoos u dhigta wax-soo-saarka beeraha isla markaana sii xumeysa cunto yarida. Saameynta dhaqaale waa mid culus, iyadoo fatahaaduhu keenaan khasaare boqolaal milyan oo doolar ah, oo ay ku jiraan burburka dalagyada, dhimashada xoolaha, carqaladeynta suuqyada, iyo waxyeellada gaarta gaadiidka iyo nidaamyada waraabka, kuwaas oo hoos u dhiga dakhliga qoysaska iyo wax-soo-saarka qaranka. Isla mar ahaantaana, magaalooyinka, gaar ahaan Muqdisho, waxay sii wajahayaan halis kordheysa oo daadad degdeg ah oo ka dhasha roobab xooggan oo ay weheliyaan nidaamyo biyo-mareen oo liita (poor drainage systems) iyo degsiimooyin aan qorsheysnayn (unplanned settlements). Daadadkani waxay carqaladeeyaan ganacsiga, burburiyaan guryaha iyo hantida dadweynaha, waxayna wasakheeyaan ilaha biyaha, taasoo kordhisa halista cudurrada sida daacuunka (cholera) iyo duumada (malaria). Saameynta isku dhafan ee fatahaadaha wabiyada iyo kuwa magaalooyinka waxay cadaadis joogto ah saaraan nolol-maalmeedka, kaabeyaasha, caafimaadka dadweynaha, iyo dhaqaalaha guud, iyagoo sii xoojinaya wareegga nuglaanta iyo barakaca ee Soomaaliya.

Taalaabooyinka horay la qaadi karo (Pathways Forward)

Soomaaliya waxay yareyn kartaa halista fatahaadaha wabiyada iyo daadadka magaalooyinka iyadoo la isku darayo xalal fudud (soft solutions), xalal ku saleysan deegaanka (nature-based approaches), iyo taageero siyaasadeed iyo hay’adeed oo xooggan (policy and institutional support). Qabashada iyo kaydinta 10–20% socodka biyaha wabiyada Jubba iyo Shabeelle waxay taageeri kartaa waraabka (irrigation) iyo dib-u-buuxinta biyaha dhulka hoostiisa (groundwater recharge), halka beerista mangroves (mangrove planting) iyo dib-u-soo-celinta dhul-biyoodka (wetland restoration) ay xasiliyaan hareeraha wabiyada, hoos u dhigaan socodka biyaha, isla markaana hagaajiyaan bacrinta ciidda. Magaalooyinka, keyd-biyo (retention basins), dhul biyaha nuuga (permeable surfaces), iyo meelaha cagaaran (green spaces) waxay yareeyaan saameynta daadadka degdegga ah. Siyaasado isku xiran (coordinated policies), xeerarka isticmaalka dhulka (land-use regulation), nidaamyada digniinta hore (early warning systems), iyo hay’ado maxalli ah oo la xoojiyay (strengthened local institutions) ayaa hubinaya diyaar garow iyo jawaab wax ku ool ah. Marka la isku daro, tallaabooyinkan waxay fatahaadaha u beddelaan kheyraad, iyagoo ilaalinaya nolol-maalmeedka, kaabeyaasha, isla markaana xoojinaya adkeysiga abaaraha.