Somalia Country Climate and Development Report
Somalia stands at a critical juncture where climate vulnerability and protracted fragility intersect to shape its development trajectory. Despite meaningful progress in macroeconomic stabilisation, completion of the HIPC process, and accession to the East African Community, the country remains highly exposed to intensifying climate shocks. Recurrent droughts, floods, and rising temperatures are not only undermining agricultural productivity and rural livelihoods but also reinforcing displacement, insecurity, and social fragmentation.
The report underscores that climate change is not a future threat—it is already a macroeconomic reality. Under a pessimistic dry and hot climate scenario, Somalia could face GDP losses exceeding 13 per cent by 2050–2060 if fragility persists. However, high-quality economic growth, diversification, and targeted adaptation investments could more than halve these losses. With approximately $5.3 billion in strategic adaptation investments over 35 years, Somalia could substantially reduce climate damages while adding billions annually to GDP by mid-century.
Three priority transformation pathways emerge:
1. Strengthening disaster risk management and climate preparedness, including early warning systems, hydrometeorological infrastructure, and risk financing mechanisms.
2. Building resilient rural livelihoods, through climate-smart agriculture, improved water management, rangeland restoration, and sustainable fisheries.
3. Advancing climate-smart urban development, investing in resilient infrastructure, renewable energy integration, flood management, and planned urban expansion to turn rapid urbanization into a driver of economic diversification rather than vulnerability.
The CCDR emphasizes that governance reform, institutional strengthening, and improved coordination of external climate finance are indispensable. In the short term, Somalia will remain dependent on external support. In the long term, it must progressively shift from reactive humanitarian expenditure to proactive resilience-building investments, leveraging private sector engagement and improving domestic resource mobilization.
Ultimately, breaking the vicious cycle between climate vulnerability and social fragility—and replacing it with a virtuous cycle of resilience and inclusive growth—will determine whether Somalia can achieve its Vision 2060 ambition of becoming a middle-income, climate-resilient economy.
