Modeling the impacts of energy consumption, ICT, industrialization, and urbanization on Somalia’s environmental sustainability: a hybrid approach using dynamic ARDL and KRLS methods

A study featured in Discover Sustainability provides important insights into the forces driving environmental change in Somalia. Led by scholars from the Institute of Climate and Environment (ICE) and SIMAD University, the research applies a dynamic blend of econometric and machine learning methods—specifically dynamic ARDL modeling and Kernel-Based Regularized Least Squares (KRLS)—to explore the complex relationships between development factors and ecological sustainability.

The findings reveal that economic growth has the potential to ease environmental pressure over time. However, higher energy consumption and expanding industrial activities increase ecological stress. Notably, greater integration of information and communication technologies (ICT) contributes to reducing the environmental footprint, emphasizing the role of digital solutions in promoting sustainability. The study also highlights that although rapid urbanization can strain resources initially, planned urban development could foster greater resilience.

The outcomes emphasize the importance of investing in renewable energy, adopting sustainable industrial practices, expanding ICT-based innovations, and encouraging green urban planning. This research serves as a valuable guide for policymakers and development planners working toward a more sustainable future for Somalia.

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